This chart is pretty damning for any premarital sex in this day and age.
- Let’s note first that this chart is only the first 5 years of marriage. This means that any other divorces after 5 years are not included.
- First 5 years is not much though, considering that the usual common divorce time is the so-called “7 year itch” which shows up in marriages of about 7-15 years. That’s probably where the rest of Teachman statistics come from where it jumps up to 40% overall for first marriages over a lifetime.
- Combining the data from the Teachman statistics and this graph means that virgins have a 5% chance of marriage failure in 5 years and a 20% risk of marriage failure over a lifetime. I would be interested to see data on where the 5 percent jumps to 20%.
- The 1 partner is the a virgin having sex with her husband before getting married. That virtually quadruples the divorce risk in the 2000s from about 5% to 20%. Conclusion: don’t have premarital sex, even to the person you are getting married to.
- The other rates are very dismal. If you’re not marrying a virgin there’s virtually no reason to marry. Who wants a 25%+ chance that their marriage will blog up in 5 years?
The trends are not exactly surprising. For example, the drop in the 1980s virgins to the 1990s and 2000s virgins is not surprising because there were more virgins in the past who may have “wanted to let their sexuality out” prior to marriage but were in fear of being judged. As views on virginity became more “relaxed” in our culture, this eliminated many of these past virgins from the pool thus dropping down the divorce rate. Those who remained virgins had more self control and a stronger home life in general.
The chart that Donal didn’t pick up but Wintery did was this one.
We can see that even in the 1970s that women were “no angels.”
- Only 21% of women were virgins when they married. Now, it’s 5%.
- Most of the population of women had 0-2 partners prior to marriage. In the 2010s this jumps up to a fairly even distribution with the mean around 4-5 partners by marriage. Additionally, 18% of the population is very promiscuous with 10+ partners.
- The statistics for 2-3 partners stayed relatively even, but the 0-1 partners dropped precipitously with drastic increases in 4-5, 6-9, and 10 partners. It’s likely not the 0-1 partners suddenly becoming drastically more promiscuous. Instead, the previous 2-3 partners became more promiscuous while many of the 0-1 partners had a few more partners.
In any case, if you are going to marry then you should marry a virgin if at all possible. The 5% and 20% lifetime divorce risk carries all of the “high risk” virgins like those with no fathers, school dropouts, drugs, medically diagnosed disorders, and other potentially risky behaviors. Thus, if you select wisely then there is generally a very low likelihood of divorce if you marry a virgin.
Although you only have a 5% chance of finding one, which is probably still dropping. I may consider running a crude statistical analysis again.