Doom and gloom and the amount of attractive Christian virgins Part 3

Based on the discussion in Donal’s thread Market Analysis and deti’s points, I went back over the statistics from the previous post. I found a few errors that I made, so I’m correcting them in this updated post. Let’s get into it.

———-

In the previous post on a woman’s sexual partners and divorce risk, we found out that approximately 5% of women were virgins when they were married in 2010. I noted that I wanted to go back and do a ‘better’ statistical analysis that is less confounded than previously in Doom and gloom and the amount of attractive Christian virgins.

  • There are 10,466,258 women aged 25-29 and 10,571,823 women aged 20-24 and 10,736,677 women aged 15-19 in the US in 2010. Let’s say the range from 18-29 is good. 18-19 make up ~40% of the 15-19 range so ~4,294,671 women.

2010 Census Data. Not much changes in 5 years given the chart as each population group is still roughly 10 million. http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf

(1) Total women in 18-29 age range = 25,332,752

———-

  • Less than 20% of Americans regularly attend church — half of what the pollsters report. While Gallup polls and other statisticians have turned in the same percentage — about 40% of the population — of average weekend church attendees for the past 70 years, a different sort of research paints quite a disparate picture of how many Americans attend a local church on any given Sunday. […] His findings reveal that the actual rate of church attendance from head counts is less than half of the 40 percent the pollsters report. Numbers from actual counts of people in Orthodox Christian churches (Catholic, mainline and evangelical) show that in 2004, 17.7 percent of the population attended a Christian church on any given weekend.

http://www.churchleaders.com/pastors/pastor-articles/139575-7-startling-facts-an-up-close-look-at-church-attendance-in-america.html

  • We also know that 70% of young adults in the 18-22 range drop out of church.

http://www.lifeway.com/Article/LifeWay-Research-finds-reasons-18-to-22-year-olds-drop-out-of-church

These two factors as pointed out are heavily confounded with each other. As KPP pointed out in the previous comments, about half of the 2/3 that drop out eventually end up attending again albeit in lower frequency. For the sake of argument, I’m willing to be factor out the dropout rate of young adults altogether using the US population “regularly attenders” as the standard which is 17.7%. This will overestimate the amount of young women in the Church.

(1) Total women in 18-29 age range, (2) who regularly attend Church = 25,332,752 * .177 = 4,483,897

———-

  • 58.5 of women 20-39 years old are overweight or obese in 2011-2012 in the US.

http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1832542

  • NIDDK (National institute for diabetes and digestive and kidney diseases) states that 33% of teens are overweight or obese.

https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/Pages/overweight-obesity-statistics.aspx

This means that 67% of teens are not overweight or obese. The statistics above state that 41.5% of women 20-39 are not overweight or obese. Unfortunately, there’s no data for strictly say 18-29, so this is just an approximation. It’s probably slightly less because metabolic rates start to slow down into early 30s.

One could say that Christians have more self control than their counterparts. However, as I have noted in posts such as A lesson in false humility: Christians are allergic to healthy lifestyles, Christian women tend to find a way to rationalize that paying attention to physical appearance is an idol. This statistic is probably pretty accurate.

An estimate of the total number of 20-29 year olds that are not overweight or obese would build off the data. If 67% of teens are not overweight or obese then the 41.5% should be averaged between the 20-29 and 30-39. Therefore, if we say that obesity increases linearly with age, then 67% of teens are not overweight or obese, 50% of 20-29 are not overweight or obese and 33% of 30-39 are not overweight or obese. Averaging 50% and 33% yields our 41.5%.

Therefore, a solid estimate is that 50% of 18-29 age range are not overweight or obese. That’s still pretty dismal.

(1) Total women in 18-29 age range, (2) who attend Church regularly, (3) who aren’t overweight or obese = 4,483,897 * .5 = 2,241,949

———-

  • In highly religious groups, up to 20% wait until marriage successfully. Naturally, religious people seem more likely to wait until marriage to have sex. In a study of 9 Southern Baptist churches in Texas (it doesn’t get much more conservative than that), 20% of the church members aged 25 or younger were married without ever having premarital sex.
  • In the general population, the ratio of women-to-men who wait until marriage to have sex seems to be about 60/40 girls-to-guys. This statistic disproves the common misconception that only women wait until marriage to have sex. Statistically-speaking, plenty of guys wait too!

http://waitingtillmarriage.org/4-cool-statistics-about-abstinence-in-the-usa/

I did some research since the previous post, and found the actual study with data:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3156853/ (my red highlighting)

A greater percentage of men had no sex (30.1%) compared to women (24.4%). Same with the data for oral only, vaginal only, and both. The distinction is fairly low, but it seems to support the conclusion that women slightly more often have premarital sex than men.

Overall, the more committed one was to Church (e.g. very often) the more likely that one was a full virgin. Unfortunately, the study did not quantify the difference between “very often” and “often” but I imagine that “very often” is likely 1 or more times per week, whereas “often” is only once to a few times month. That’s the way I’ve seen it quantified in online dating surveys.

Indeed, there was also a huge disparity between those who married 16-20 and 21-24 and 25-36 with the rates at 15.8% (includes married by pre-marital pregnancy), 38.8% and 13.5% respectively for no sex before marriage. Overall, if you’re a Christian man aim for the 21-24 age group of Christian women attending Church often for your best shot.

Overall childhood church attendance and 2 parent families also played a role over no church attendance and divorced families. Another 2 factors to keep in mind.

19 total women were total virgins at marriage, and 22 total men were total virgins at marriage. This also lends credence to my aforementioned conclusion that men should aim for the 21-24 demographic of Christian women if they want a virgin at marriage as pretty much all of the virgins were clustered into eh 20-24 range. Kudos to the 32 woman and 36 man who waited.

It’s worth noting that Church 1a and 2 had a highly disproportionate number of virgins at marriage compared to the rest of the Churches surveyed. 1a and 1b are designated as being in the “same region” so there’s obviously a drastic difference between Church 1a and Church 1b even though they’re in the same area. FIND THE RIGHT CHURCH.

For the sake of the statistical analysis, I’m going to go with the 30.4% for “very often” Church attenders for the conclusion as the “attend Church regularly” is already a factor. Note that this may be higher in the 21-24 age women population and less in the 25-29 age population.

(1) Total women in 18-29 age range, (2) who attend Church regularly, (3) who aren’t overweight or obese, (4) who stay a virgin until marriage = 2,241,949 * .304 = 681,552

———-

Mark MacIntyre comments:

Shouldn’t you separate the single women in this age range from the partnered women before doing the rest of the sums? (I’m quite tired today, so the answer to this may be staring me in the face).

According to Pew Research, just 20% of Americans aged 18-29 are married. That would further reduce your eligibility number to 681,552 x 0.8 = 545,241 (rounded down, because who wants 0.6 of a woman?).

That is indeed the case. Therefore, adding a significant needed criteria this would be:

(1) Total women in 18-29 age range, (2) who attend Church regularly, (3) who aren’t overweight or obese, (4) who stay a virgin until marriage (5) who are single  = 681,552 * .8 = 545,241

———-

I factored in as many confounding variables as I could, and I was conservative at adding more variables to the equation because of confounding factor overlap. Other variables with confounding factors that I didn’t include in the statistics:

  • The National Marriage Project also found that “about 80 percent of young-adult men and women continued to rate marriage as an ‘important’ part of their life plans; almost half of them described it as ‘very important.’” Thirty percent of 25-year-old single women want to be married. Read more at http://national.deseretnews.com/article/1893/The-national-marriage-age-is-increasing-but-not-for-this-group-of-people.html . Only ~30% of women want to be married in the 18-30 age range on average approximately.
  • Those who attend church are not always “Christians.” Based on my experience and others I’d say that only 10-20% of Christians in churches are actually reading their Bible and striving to obey Scripture.
  • Worse measures of virginity in non-extremely conservative Church populations.
  • Denominational differences. Some of the stats clumps all religions together (hindu, muslum, etc.) not just Catholic and Protestant.

Thus, I believe the above statistics are a fairly accurate measurement compared to the previous estimate. If anything, it’s going to be a slight to moderate overestimate.

———-

The first post resulted in these stats:

In conclusion, there are approximately 125,000 (126,157) Christian women in the US aged 18-29 who regularly attend Church, aren’t overweight or obese, and are virgins at marriage. This is approximately 0.5% of the 18-29 total population (126,157 / 25,332,752). Pretty rare. In the US total population it is .039% (126,157 / 320,090,000).

Specifically, in any random Church the percentage that you’ll find a 18-29 year old attractive, Christian virgin is going to be .2 (virginity at marriage) * .415 (not overweight or obese) = 8.30%. In other words, about 1 in 12.

The second post resulted in these stats:

In conclusion, there are approximately 450,000 (446,596) Christian women in the US aged 18-29 who regularly attend Church, aren’t overweight or obese, and are virgins at marriage. This is approximately 1.76% of the 18-29 total population (446,596 / 25,332,752). In the US total population it is .014% (446,596 / 320,090,000).

Specifically, in any random Church the percentage that you’ll find a 18-29 old with the attributes of non-overweight or obese and virginity is going to be .24 (virginity at marriage) * .415 (not overweight or obese) = 9.96%. In other words, about 1 in 10.

The third post resulted in these numbers:

In conclusion, there are approximately 545,241 Christian women in the US aged 18-29 who regularly attend Church, aren’t overweight or obese, are virgins at marriage, and are currently single. This is approximately 2.15% of the 18-29 total women population (545,241 / 25,332,752). In the US total population it is .17% (545,241 / 320,090,000).

Specifically, any random 18-29 year old woman in Church with the attributes of non-overweight or obese and a virginity and single is going to be .304 (virginity at marriage) * .5 (not overweight or obese) * .8 (single) = 12%. In other words, about 1 in 8.

These numbers are better than previous estimates, based on more accurate data. However, I did drop some potential relevant factors, so if anything it may be a slight overestimate.

The average Church size is approximately 186 attenders. Your average Church is 60/40 women to men as we mentioned before. The women tend to be disproportionately older or families with children. Total 18-29 women in the US who regularly attend Church make up 16.1% of the women population (25,332,752/(156,964,212)). I won’t factor in drop out rates among young people, even though it may be up to 33%. Hence, we get:

  • ~18 women (186 * .6 * .161) in the 18-29 age group in your average congregation.
  • ~2.2 women (18 * .304 * .5 * .8) who are age 18-29, not overweight or obese, virgins, and single in your average congregation.

Unfortunately, there is room for gloom. But don’t lose hope. Advice in the conclusion.

Conclusions and advice

Criteria:

  1. Women who are 18-29,
  2. regularly attend Church,
  3. aren’t overweight or obese,
  4. are virgins at marriage

Statistics based on these criteria:

  • 2.15% of women in the 18-29 total population.
  • .17% of women in the total US population.
  • 12% of Church going women 18-29 are not overweight or obese and virgins.
  • 18 women in the 18-29 age group in your average 186 member congregation.
  • 2.2 women who are age 18-29, not overweight or obese, and virgins in your average 186 member congregation.
  • 11.7 women who are age 18-29, not overweight or obese, and virgins in your average 1,000 member congregation
  • 117 women who are age 18-29, not overweight or obese, and virgins in your average 10,000 member congregation

The last 5 statistics are probably slight overestimates. More conservative Churches may have slightly more. More liberal Churches will probably have less. Larger congregation have a tendency to be more liberal; hence, it is probably less than 160 women per 10,000 members.

That said there are good indicators for who the attractive Christian virgins are. They wear feminine clothing, have long hair, have an innocent look, have strong masculine fathers, value family and marriage, love children, don’t have tattoos, don’t like alcohol, and other such traits.

Of course, most of the men are probably going after the 12% in each Church, so you need to learn how to be a strong, confident masculine leader if your goal is one of those women.

My advice:

  1. Attend one main Church.
  2. Go to young adult events at other Churches and gatherings to increase your chances of meeting one of these few age 18-29 attractive, Christian virgins.
  3. If you’re in your mid to late 20s, aim for the 20-24 age group of devout Church going women as your odds rise up to potentially close to 40% in that range for virgins.
  4. Potentially attend a mega-Church, although the theology of many mega-Churches nowadays can be questionable. If you do, understand the importance of vetting character and attitudes.
  5. At 3 women per average congregation you might just be better meeting many 18-29 year old women at various hobbies, dances, and other social events because 2.69% of them will be Christian women who regularly attend Church, are not obese or overweight, and are virgins. If it’s a physical activity your chances are potentially better since that tends to eliminate the overweight and obese.
  6. Use your friends and families to network!
  7. If you’re still young, perhaps volunteer in university campus Christian group(s) as a leader or continue to be one if you recently graduated.
  8. Other advice here on my detailed timeline and how to guide on the process of finding a wife.

My Church is smaller than the average congregation. I did not find my girl in my current Church. She was 23 and a virgin when I found her, so that lends credence to the 20-24 range as well.

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22 Responses to Doom and gloom and the amount of attractive Christian virgins Part 3

  1. donalgraeme says:

    Your number crunching is always appreciate, DS.

  2. Mark MacIntyre says:

    I really like all of your posts on this topic. As a stats kinda guy I enjoy seeing the numbers.

    “Total women in 18-29 age range = 25,332,752<"

    Shouldn’t you separate the single women in this age range from the partnered women before doing the rest of the sums? (I’m quite tired today, so the answer to this may be staring me in the face).

  3. @ Mark MacIntyre

    You are indeed correct… I can’t believe no one mentioned that on the past two posts. I will edit that into the main post.

    It’s also worth noting that a significant percentage of that 20% of women are likely the 7-10s in attractiveness. I’ve rarely seen an 8+ make it to 30 without being married. There have been some 7s and definitely a lot of 6s and below.

  4. Mark MacIntyre says:

    Glad to help.

    I’ve done a fair bit of thinking on this topic myself, which is perhaps why I thought of this factor before anyone else mentioned it.

  5. Well, I believe I commented that the actual answer would be a Range since you really need to approach this from an Actuarial perspective, as the sub-divisions aren’t strict.

  6. Lost Patrol says:

    This is painful math for any young man hoping to marry well. He needs to have an attitude of “just skip it” unless overwhelming evidence surfaces that he has found one of the few.

  7. Cane Caldo says:

    Wow! I’ll be referencing this again. Good work.

  8. You have got to see this link. In a very concrete way, this recording deals with everything you are discussing. Please help spread this before youtube takes it down:

    There are powerful forces in our society arrayed against men holding women accountable when they act selfishly.

  9. @ LG

    Yeah, that would seem to be the case.

    I suspect that say an Amish population versus a conservative Church versus a liberal Church would have the most virgins to the least virgins in that order.

  10. @ Cane

    Sounds good. Looking forward to it.

  11. @ Lost Patrol

    The search is indeed difficult. Basically, work hard at searching but be content with singleness.

    That’s the attitude I had during my search, and I expected that I may never fine one.

  12. Good number crunching but I have a serious problem using the Southern Baptist as a conservative church organization. From my personal experiance I have found that they tend to be on the liberal side when it comes to dress, drinking, dancing, and other social norms. But to even narrow the numbers down I would throw in, again based on experiance and knowledge the attitude of the potential mate towards homeschooling. Is the potential mate willing to do the biblical mandate and train your children or are they wanting to just send them off to some other school letting others become the primary influence of the children God blesses you with? But in viewing young people homeschooled you would see the virgin count much higher, the obesity slightly lower (many homeschool families tend eat more wholesome foods that they grow or coop with others on growing), and the more likely to meet your desires.

  13. @ timmschaeffer

    Good points. I think the skew in the Churches even within the baptist Churches surveyed tells the tale. Two of the Churches had > 40% virgins whereas about 6-7 other churches had < 20% virgins.

  14. Pingback: Feminine beauty is highly controllable theory and analysis | Christianity and masculinity

  15. Samuel Culpepper says:

    If your analysis is correct, and I have no reason to doubt it from my own observations, there are going to be a bunch of sexually frustrated men in the church’ future . . . or they will turn to non-marital relations with secular women. Sexual frustration will drive a man mad, while whores while drive a man mad. It’s Hobsons Choice. God help our young men.

  16. @ Samuel Culpepper

    There’s likely a lot of non-virgin men marrying non-virgin women if the baptist churches are any confirmation.

    Not that this is a bad thing as any marriage built on Christ by committed Christians is good. It’s not the ideal of obedience to God, though.

    And yes: God help our young men.

  17. Samuel Culpepper says:

    Deep Strength:

    Affirmative on the baptist church, and methodist,, and catholic and presbyterian, etc., etc. Chastity has mattered not to protestants and catholics for a good 50 years now and I don’t see a change in that behavior so long as churches keep selling this “grace only” theology devoid of any discussions on consequences. The sword never departed David’s house because of his sexual transgression with Bathsheba , , , and he was a man after God’s heart! How arrogant are we to think we can escape the consequences?

    On the subject of non-virgins marrying non-virgins . . . I have seen the enemy and he is us!!
    I did it and most of my friends did it, however it didn’t work out so well. Now in our early 40’s, most of my friends, save the couple that married virgins, are all divorced, twice divorced or about to be divorced. I think these marriages, if I can call them marriages, failed because they were outside of God’s law and will. I see no scriptures that suggest marrying a used woman is good or holy. On the contrary, I read Jesus to clearly condemn marrying divorced women in Matthew 5:32, Mark10:11 and Luke 16:18 as did Paul when he wrote 1 Cor. 7:11. The church openly condones these adulteries.

    If we really want our marriages to reflect the marriage between christ and the church then we should remain chaste and only take virgins to wife, just like the first marriage and the marriage of christ and the church. Otherwise it will only deteriorate from here no matter how much grace teaching we heap on the young, their marriages will fail because they are against God’s law and will.

    I understand the sentiment on “non-virgin marriages” but can’t agree that they are built on Christ and thus “good.” I understand the desire to see people wed that are in he church, but we are selling out the institution for the sake of perception. We are only kidding ourselves: God is not mocked!

    If things remain so, good luck getting young christian men to remain chaste while their future wives are out slutting it up . . . they see the raw deal for what it is which is why there are so many cads in the church. Why would any young man with a normal T level remain chaste until his mid-late 20’s only to be forced to settle for a banged up slut as a wife?? That guy will be so resentful towards his wife that it will become toxic, leading to his cheating, porn use and likely divorce from said woman. No, these broken women should be left to wallow in their own messes and to be the second or third wife of some secular putz.

    I am teaching my kids to enter marriage chaste like the first instituted marriage, otherwise they will not get my blessing or support for these worldly marriages. This madness will end with me . . . my children will know better.

    That said, I appreciated the article and the time you put into the numbers. Good work!

  18. Pingback: Feminine beauty is highly controllable theory and analysis Part 2 | Christianity and masculinity

  19. where did you find her DS?

  20. @ diytraveltips

    I kept asking my Christian friends/family until I found out about her through said Christian friends.

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