Divorce rates have not really dropped

An NYT article claims that divorce rates have dropped.

Here’s the chart:

Overall, the “rates” don’t really look to be dropping much at all because they are pretty much all on similar trajectories.

There’s also no real “spike” for the so-called 7 year itch either.

The “spike” for the 1980s and 1990s seems to be in 2008, since the data for those married in 2000 only goes up to 8 years. That’s when the market crashed from the housing bubble, and tons of people lost their houses and/or jobs. When husbands don’t have jobs, wives tend to divorce in much greater numbers.

Overall, if the rates are dropping for those in the 2000s, it’s because:

  • There are less marriages overall and thus there are less divorces.
  • Cohabitation is on the rise.
  • Men tend to see marriage as a bad deal for them, and so they are just either opting out or only getting married if they are REALLY sure.
  • The more unattractive men that would’ve gotten married and divorced simply aren’t getting married anymore since they can’t find women. These would-be divorces simply never come to be.
  • Men are less masculine now, and women are less feminine.

If men and women married at the same rates as they did in the latter 1900s, then you’d definitely see drastically more divorces than the charts indicate. That’s why simply looking at divorce rates is deceptive.

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6 Responses to Divorce rates have not really dropped

  1. Looks a lot more, in the data, like the marginal marriages simply don’t happen anymore, those that were originally cultural inertia.

  2. earlthomas786 says:

    What would be interesting is to compare what the divorce rates were before and after the monster of no-fault was implimented.

    As more men become aware of that (either through personal experience, watching it happen to their dad, or reading stories on the internet about that)…it would be logical for them to not get married and be subject to that at any point in their marriage.

  3. purge187 says:

    “That’s why simply looking at divorce rates is deceptive.”

    As Barbarossa mentioned in one of his videos, the statistics also don’t factor in the number of unhappy men in the proverbial “Cheaper To Keep Her” marriages who know they’ll be sodomized by the State if they choose to eject.

  4. anonymous_ng says:

    It reminds me of folks trumpeting the unemployment rate when the labor force participation rate is a better measure.

  5. donalgraeme says:

    Earl, I know there are some charts already out there on the matter, I’ve seen them. The data apparently showed that divorce rates for male initiated divorce didn’t change much after no vault divorce was implemented. However, the rates for female initiated divorce skyrocketed.

  6. earlthomas786 says:

    ‘However, the rates for female initiated divorce skyrocketed.’

    The one I remember that was a recent case study was South Korea. I think it was put in place around the 90s and the spike up was the same…more women initated divorce.

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