Previous reddit post on statistics. I know Dalrock has covered it too a while back when it came out.
Bentley article on predictions. Here are the interesting excerpts.
Today an unprecedented portion of millennials will remain unmarried through age 40, a recent Urban Institute report predicted. The marriage rate might drop to 70 percent — a figure well below rates for boomers (91 percent), late boomers (87 percent) and Gen Xers (82 percent). And declines might be even sharper if marriage rates recover slowly, or not at all, from pre-recession levels, according to the report.
Traditional marriage has been on a downward trajectory for generations, but with this group it appears to be in free fall. According to a report released last month by the Pew Research Center, 25 percent of millennials are likely to never be married.
So this is what we have:
- In 1980, 95% of all women got married by 45 years old.
- In 2016, 85% of all women have gotten married by 45 years old.
That number is expected to increase to the 25-30% range for millennials (e.g. born 1982-2004) according to these predictions. So theoretically, the last millennials would be 45 in 2049.
Young couples are opting to live together and put off marriage for later, if at all. About a quarter of unmarried young adults (ages 25 to 34) are living with a partner, according to Pew Research analysis of Current Population Survey data.
Average married age of women and men is 27 and 29. Therefore, we can estimate that this number is about ~40% unmarried for that particulate age range or so due to 27-29 being on the earlier side of 30 which is in the middle. That would mean that about 10% of unmarried young adults are cohabiting.
Marriage has lost much of its social allure, but remains a desired milestone for about 70 percent of millennials. They say they would like to marry, but many — especially those with lower levels of income and education — lack what they deem to be a necessary prerequisite: a solid economic foundation.
Ironically, it’s marriage that actually staves off poverty. One income with stay at home motherhood is generally a feature of upper middle class; two incomes tend to bring a family out of poverty income levels.
“Even as marriage rates have plummeted — particularly for the young and the less educated — Gallup survey data show that young singles very much hope to get hitched. Of Americans age 18 to 34, only about nine percent have both never been married and say they do not ever want to marry,” she wrote.
So about 10% say they don’t want to get married and never have been married. 18-34 is a pretty big population range for singles. If average age of marriage for women is 27 and 29 for men, then that probably encompasses about 60-70% of the population. Let’s say it’s about 2/3rds of the population, so about 6% of millennials never want to get married. 94% want to get married.
Here’s the margins
- Currently, 85% of all women have gotten married by 45.
- About 10% cohabitate.
- Predicted by 2049 that 25-30% of women will have not been married by 45.
This leaves us with:
- 6% never want to get married
- 10% cohabitation
- 70-75% married
- 94% want to get married.
This leaves us with:
- 9-14% “unwanted spinsterhood” — about 1 in 10 women
- 19-24% “unwanted cohabitation and unwanted spinsterhood” — about 2 in 10 women
That’s a decent chunk of the female population that will have to settle for unwanted cohabitation and unwanted spinsterhood. We’ll see how this plays into affecting the narrative. The loudest cries are always at the margins.
Edit: Fuzziewuzziebear makes a good comment:
The problem with this is that it fails to take into account women who have divorced and don’t remarry. There have to be a terrible lot of them. At a guess. let’s say it doubles the numbers. With eighteen to twenty eight percent of women unlikely to marry, they should be screaming.
About 50% of women remarry after divorce. 1st marriage divorce rate is currently approximately between 30-40%. Therefore, there are another 15-20% of women who are single divorcees.
Bonus: Kate Bolick of the oft referenced All the Single Ladies article that has gone around a lot has a book on spinsterhood aptly named “Spinster” trying to ‘spin’ it in a positive light. The media agrees with her narrative obviously.
The rest of the article is blustering to try to rationalize the “changing views” of marriage. Not worth the time reading.