It’s been a couple years since my previous posts on this topic, so I went looking for more data. Here are the previous posts.
- Doom and gloom and the amount of attractive Christian virgins
- Doom and gloom and the amount of attractive Christian virgins Part 2
- Doom and gloom and the amount of attractive Christian virgins Part 3
- Review of vetting, virgins and new info on virginity pledges
To review, the Southern Baptist study still appears to be one of a kind.
It appeared, on average, that if you meet a woman in the 21-24 range they would have about 30-40% chance of being a virgin and another 10ish% of having only oral but no vaginal sex. While this is not great in terms of stats, it’s relatively than most people think there are now given the fairly lax attitude that many so-called Christians have toward sex now.
Fortunately, we have some more data now at least in the Evangelical segment of the population. From IFS study’s Sex and the Evangelical.
All graphs are attributed to their blog.
Overall, it appears all Christian denominations are not doing a good job of teaching sexual morality. It’s interesting that it’s rarer to find a male virgin than a female though, given that there were more male than female virgins in the Baptist study (though a small sample size).
The more important graphs are as follows though.
The Southern Baptist study specifically measured virginity, oral only, or both at marriage. These specific statistics take into only singles.
First, it appears the college age is where there is a drastic increase in sex which is fairly consistent with the evaluation that college age is where kids are unsupervised and go wild. 100-150% increases over all levels of religious service attendance and level of religious importance.
Second, since 15-17 isn’t really marriageable ages, 18-22 is the most consistent thing that we have to look at compared to the 21-24 section in the Southern Baptist study where there was approximately 30-40% virgins and ~10% oral only at marriage.
This new data is approximately consistent with the Southern Baptist data if we consider that it is 50% across the whole 18-22 age group. We’d probably expect a distribution of virginity across this age group to be something like 60% at 18, 55% at 19, 50% at 20, 45% at 21, and 40% at 22. It’s possible that it could be more exaggerated at the 18-19 and 21-22 ages, but I’d assume it’s pretty close to that.
Third, level of religious service attendance (51% virginity in the 18-22 age group) and level of religious importance (54% in the 18-22 age group) clearly overlap to a great degree, but they probably don’t fully overlap. I would expect if you take into account women who cite both that the virginity levels would not be around 51-54% but closer to about 60% given the two populations don’t fully overlap.
The amount of attractive Christian virgins
I’m not going to do the whole analysis of the total population, but this gives us some semi-accurate data points to use to estimate the amount of women inside a Church who are attractive, Christian virgins.
In the previous posts, I estimated that about 50% of young adults 18-29 are not overweight or obese based on CDC data. Obviously, this skews greater the older you are, so the number is likely higher for a lower age group and lower for the older segment. In the case of younger marriageable age (18-24ish) of Christian virgins due to the data we have on those above, it’s probably about 50-60% of women who are not overweight or obese.
Based on this, we would get a range of approximately:
- Lower bound: 31% virginity (21-24 age group SB data) * 50% women who are not overweight or obese = 15.5% attractive Christian virgins
- Mid bound: 54% (51-60% range) virginity (18-22 age group IFS data) * 55% women who are not overweight or obese = 29.7% attractive Christian virgins
- Upper bound: 60% virginity (51-60% range) virginity (18-22 group IFS data) * 60% of women who are not overweight or obese = 36% attractive Christian virgins.
Obviously, this is spitballing with the data, but in a particular random Church you’d expect that of the women in the 18-24ish range there would be about 15-36% attractive Christian virgins or about 1 in 6.5 to 1 in 3. According to the Southern Baptist study, this approximately lines up with the overall data with the approximate percentage of virgins that actually got married — 5/9 data points with 2 above and 2 below. Some Churches are way better than others though.
Honestly, I want to know what they were doing at Church 1a and 2 to get 66.7% and 43% virgins at marriage. I also want to know what they were doing in Church 4b to get such a lower number.
When you get to the 25-29 age range though all bets are off. It’s probably closer to 1 in 10 (10%) to 1 in 5 (20%). That’s still not great, but again it’s probably not that hard to get yourself into the top 20% of men nowadays so you have a shot if you put in the effort.
If you’re a man, a 0-4 age gap is fairly normal, though once you start to go to 5-7 it becomes a bit more socially frowned upon. Thus, if you’re seeking to marry a woman:
- In the 18-24 age range for women, you generally have the best shot if you are 18-27 yourself and 18-31 if you can swing that 7 year gap
- In the 25-29 age range for women, that would be 25-33 yourself and 25-36 for the older gap.
Old age gaps are generally on a case by case basis, and most women at least in their 20s probably wouldn’t consider it that much.
Older than these ages, it’s hard to say. It’s definitely not hard to stand out in the Church but the prospects get worse.
Tangentially relevant: one blogger’s time line of how the Southern Baptist Convention has been / is being converged.
I’m seven years older than my wife. She was 19 when we met in a college church group. In fact, I found dating in my mid-20s a whole lot easier (after several years in the Army) than when I was younger, and most of the girls I dated were 18-19. I’m also an engineer, with a fairly stereotypical engineer’s personality, so it definitely wasn’t my charisma.
Granted, that was 16 years ago. Hopefully, that’s still possible for young men today.
Another good fact-based essay with very good visual aids. Thanks.
I’m seven years older than my wife.
Have you listened to any college girls lately? The stated preference is for a 2 year age difference at most. I have worked with some 30 – 32 year olds, they are married to men 1 to 2 years older. You can get an earful of “creeeeepy” from the 20-somethings about age differences of 4 years or more. But we all know that stated preferences of women can change as they get closer to 3-0. However bear in mind that the average age of a woman in the US on her first marriage day is 27 to 28.
Of course, on the other hand it’s not at all difficult to find situations involving 20-something women and 40-something men… just generally not marriage.
Granted, that was 16 years ago. Hopefully, that’s still possible for young men today.
Many things are possible, but young men today are squashed and hammered by many forces that want them to sit down, shut up and obey.
DS’s blog right here is a form of opposition.
While they don’t discern in the data, the surveys suggest that hetero fudge-packing is now considered normal in relationships.
When I was a kid, fellatio was considered normal (depicted in the movie “Parenthood” as practiced by middle class couples).
A few generations before that, it wasn’t considered normal (WWII GI’s: “the French fight with their feet and f__k with their mouths).
Yeah, I’ve overheard conversations like that at work. Girls are missing out on good men, and don’t even realize it.
Yep, I get that. That’s why I added the caveat. It was already bad 16 years ago, and it’s only gotten worse.
That’s why I’m here. I have four teenage daughters and a teenage son, so I need to glean as much knowledge from other men as possible.
Good conversing with you again, brother.
The Bar Graph for Evangelicals shows that 74% Female and 74% Male in the 18-22 age range have had sex and the percentages are even greater for the Mainstream, Black, Catholic and None categories.
These percentages seem to suggest that males are not having any difficulty in finding a partner for sex. It is unlikely that all of the males are the Chad type, but more likely they represent a typical cross section of society – just an average guy.
Thus, this bar graph contradicts the belief that males in the top 20% are getting all the “action” while remainder are left out. Unless, of course the reported data is faulty.
The 80/20 rule seems to have come from data from dating sites/apps and it was rationalized as a case of the Pareto distribution. It was then expanded to infer that 20% of guys were getting all the sex. It is unlikely to be that skewed although some claim the 20% are the ones who get the virgins (more believable but not provable).
It’s highly likely that the male numbers are inflated. Men lie in the opposite direction of women, exaggerating their sexual encounters and sometimes making them up because virginity in males is shameful in our society (indicates you’re a loser). But inflated by how much is anyone’s guess.
You are correct. About 22% for each have 2-3 partners and 40-50% of each have 4 or more partners. For cumulative ~70% each.
Yes, I think it’s more along the lines that the top 20% are more or less sleeping around, although most of the top 20% of specifically Christian men tend to marry off early.
The rest of relationships suggest that most men and most women are doing serial monogamy where you mainly have sex in relationships (though before marriage).
All the action generally means pick of the litter which means tons of sex. This mainly indicates that’s the top 50% of men, which is generally to be expected now I think. Obviously, many of those men could be at 4 and then it’s probably only like 10-20% of those men who are like 6, 7, 8 or 10+. That’s the problem with only having 2-3 categories.
Men and women lie so not sure if we should take the numbers at face value.
If it is a self-reported survey, then the numbers for females are higher and those for males are lower. There is a “1/3 rule” which might apply. Females will only admit 1/3 their actual N count. Males only have 1/3 of what they brag about.
The 80/20 rule originated from a Pareto distribution. Data from OKTrends (from OKCupid) and other estimates confirmed this. A more precise mathematical analysis from a couple years ago is 78/22. (Sorry I don’t have links to explain these numbers; it’s just what I remember.) But this was all from a few years ago. This could be changing now.
Here’s something to compare.
Women’s claimed N-count increases when they’re told they’re being polygraphed – there was a study done – don’t have the reference at hand.
Men lie and exaggerate in the same way that a guy who is 5 foot 10 and 3/8 will tell you he’s six feet tall.
It’s an older study done on a small sample at the Univ. of Waterloo in Canada. I think back in the 90’s. From memory, college women were tested three ways, first with a paper questionnaire that others would see the data from; second with a questionnaire that they were assured was anonymous; third with a questionnaire while connected to a fake lie-detector. N-count was lowest when the girls thought someone else could see, higher when it was anonymous and highest when they thought they’d be caught out lying.
The next time I find it I should download the whole doc including data sets, because it probably can’t be replicated in the current political environment, and stuff like that is slowly disappearing from the web. I’ve taken to accumulating DVD’s of movies I like and hard, physical copies of books that I value, because of this slow-motion Orwellian “memory holing” that’s going on.
Any study or other document that’s worth having should be on a private, secured hard drive that’s generally not connected to anything on the Internet.
Here you go.
The study does not show men exaggerating their notch count.
Good work finding references.
Here’s where I leave the data and speculate.
Female rationalization hamster means, for some women, some N-‘s “don’t count” (probably the ones regretted) and they actually believe this. So N is deflated for some women aside from conscious lying about it (captured in study).
That Blasey-Ford lady passed a lie detector test – she really believed Brett did it.
“Those attached to the lie-detector reported an average of 4.0 partners compared with 3.7 for men who thought their answers would be read.”
Here’s my (biased) speculation assuming there’s no difference in the men’s data (3.7 vs. 4 isn’t statistically significant).
The tendency of a lot of men is to lie by exaggeration. They wouldn’t care much about getting caught by the lie detector -worth the risk to avoid the worse embarrassment of admitting you’re a virgin or have a low notch count like 1. Men also bolder, more likely to say “what the hell” and lie anyway.
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You can skip all of this by simply finding a Christian wife in East or Southeast Asia. Rare to not find a virgin in the truly devout there. Not to mention pretty much all of them are at least moderately attractive since none of them are fat.
As a man that grew up in a small rural town in the early 2000’s, I can tell you most girls are not virgin after 10th grade. The meme of the country girl being more chaste is a literal urban legend by ignorant city dwellers. Church girls around here go to church to feel less bad about being a slut, and as I’ve seen called on Dalrock’s blog, think of themselves as “born again virgins.”
For those who want to “keep to their race,” I wish you luck. Myself, I am happily married to a Chinese girl who is 8 years my junior, now going on three years and our first child is due soon. We were both virgin at marriage.
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